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09月21日
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Key beneficiaries include wind equipment suppliers VWS, NDXG, SIEGn, andGE, and US wind developers like NEE. Greater wind capacity raises thetransmission opportunity set for transmission developers (AEP, EIX, PCG) butremains a headwind for baseload generators (EXC, NRG, and FE).
We raise our 2016-2020 wind development forecast
However, a modest improvement in capacity factors from expected new-buildlevels of 40% currently to roughly 50%, or a 10% decline in capital costs, couldenable developers to still generate mid-single digit unlevered returns.
the end of tax benefits could present a minor headwind in2020+, assuming no technology improvements
We estimate that new wind plants could run at capacity factors between 35%-45% and generate mid-single digit (5%-7%) IRRs with contract prices in the$20-$30/MWh range, which remains below both (1) the prices needed formany other sources of new power generation capacity and (2) wholesaleprices in select regional power markets today.
Assuming tax credits expire in the 2020 timeframe, new plants would requirehigher contract prices (closer to $35-$40/MWh) to deliver similar returns.
We double our new wind development forecast from 20 GW to roughly 40GWs of new capacity by 2020, given tax credit extensions and improvedeconomics, a 55% increase from YE2015 levels and representing a $70bncapital investment opportunity in US wind plants.
Given a combination of tax credits, such as the Production Tax Credits (PTCs)and bonus depreciation along with improved technology performance, weestimate new wind projects could generate attractive mid-single digit (5%-7%)unlevered IRRs. Levered returns appear much higher for project developers,making economics attractive for at least the next 3-5 years and helpingfacilitate a Low Carbon Economy.
and these tax benefits and improved capacity factors alsoimply low contract prices for new wind plants
The economics of wind development remain compelling
benefitting suppliers, wind and transmission developers,but a headwind for baseload merchant power generators
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